Follow the Money, Election Day: who's funding the 2026 election, what the early vote shows, and the final polls

Published November 3, 2026, Election Day. Early-vote figures are from the University of Florida Election Lab's tracker as of 11:30 p.m. Eastern on November 2. Polls and averages are as of November 2. Campaign money is from the last reports filed with the Federal Election Commission before Election Day, covering through October 14. Outside spending in the Senate races is the True News tally of FEC filings through October 27.

This is part of a True News series following the money in the 2026 election. Every money figure comes from an official filing or a named source, and every figure links to it. The polls, averages and ratings are other organizations' work, credited by name. True News has no political affiliation, endorses no party or candidate, and makes no prediction of its own.

The short version

The 2026 midterm is the most expensive on record. OpenSecrets projects $11.9 billion in total federal spending, and it has already tracked $1.47 billion in "dark money," contributions from groups that do not disclose their own donors. More than 58.6 million Americans had voted early by Monday night. The RealClearPolling average of the generic congressional ballot has Democrats ahead 52.1% to 43.3% (polls from October 9 to November 1).

Who's funding the 2026 election

The biggest donors, all counted the same way, from FEC data as of October 27 (Al Jazeera's count of FEC filings):

• Elon Musk: $446 million to Republican-aligned groups. OpenSecrets counts $445 million, including $215 million to America PAC, the super PAC he started, and $168 million to the Senate Leadership Fund.

• Elizabeth and Richard Uihlein: $150 million to Republican-aligned groups.

• Jeff and Janine Yass: $110 million to Republican-aligned groups. Jeff Yass is also the biggest funder in Pennsylvania's legislative races (see below).

• George Soros: $102 million to Democratic-aligned groups, through two Soros-linked groups, Geosor Corp. and the Fund for Policy Reform, according to OpenSecrets.

• Michael Bloomberg: $84 million to Democratic-aligned groups.

• Reid Hoffman and Michelle Yee: $41 million to Democratic-aligned groups.

The 50 largest donors gave a combined $2.77 billion: $1.67 billion to Republican-aligned groups, $832 million to Democratic-aligned groups and $264 million to groups backing both parties or a single industry, such as sports betting and cryptocurrency.

The biggest outside spenders, as of October 30, according to OpenSecrets:

• Senate Leadership Fund (Republican Senate leadership): $489 million.

• MAGA Inc. (President Trump's super PAC): $353 million, nearly all of it since the start of September.

• Senate Majority PAC (Democratic Senate leadership): $248 million.

• House Majority PAC (Democratic House leadership): $192 million.

• Lower Costs Now (Democratic, new this fall): $75 million since October 1.

Ripple and Coinbase together gave $63 million to super PACs promoting the cryptocurrency industry. Two of the largest donors, One Nation ($133 million, Republican-aligned) and Majority Forward ($102 million, Democratic-aligned), are nonprofits that do not disclose their own donors.

OpenSecrets expects outside spending to reach $3.9 billion, up from $2 billion in 2022. So far conservative groups have out-spent liberal groups $2.03 billion to $1.67 billion. Outside groups do not give money to the campaigns. They buy their own ads, mail and canvassing, for or against a candidate.

What the early vote shows

As of 11:30 p.m. Monday, the UF Election Lab counted 58,677,062 early votes in 49 reporting states: 31,897,521 cast in person and 26,779,541 mail ballots returned. That is already 53% of the total number of people who voted in those same states in the 2022 midterm.

In the states that register voters by party, 12,512,103 registered Democrats, 9,116,463 registered Republicans and 7,421,749 voters with neither party had voted. Party registration shows who returned a ballot, not how anyone voted.

Some states stand out (UF Election Lab, compared with each state's total 2022 turnout):

• Texas: 7,736,594 early votes, 95% of the state's entire 2022 turnout before a single Election Day vote was cast. The Texas Tribune reports that this beats the 2018 midterm record.

• Georgia: 2,826,388, 71% of 2022 turnout. 915,394 of them, 32.4%, were Black voters.

• North Carolina: 2,819,922, 74% of 2022 turnout. 594,491 of them, 21.1%, were Black voters.

• Michigan: 2,313,206, 51% of 2022 turnout.

Georgia and North Carolina are among the few states that record voters' race on the voter rolls, so they are the only battlegrounds where Black early-vote turnout can be counted from official records.

Pennsylvania and Philadelphia

Pennsylvania has no in-person early voting, so its early vote is mail ballots. As of November 2, voters had returned 1,062,313 of the 1,297,749 mail ballots requested, 82%. By party registration: 687,732 Democrats, 267,388 Republicans and 107,193 others.

In Philadelphia, voters had returned 96,822 of 126,133 mail ballots, 76.8%, below the state rate. 83,362 came from registered Democrats, 5,512 from Republicans and 7,948 from others.

Pennsylvania does not let counties open mail ballots until Election Day morning, so mail-ballot results will come in through the night and after. Mail ballots must be received by 8 p.m. today. Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., and anyone in line at 8 p.m. can vote. Find your polling place at vote.pa.gov or, in Philadelphia, vote.phila.gov.

The races

U.S. Senate

Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority. RealClearPolling rates nine races toss-ups as of November 2: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas. Money figures are campaign totals for the cycle through October 14 from FEC reports. Outside money is the True News tally through October 27 (see "How True News counted").

How to read the polls: an average combines many polls and is more reliable than any one poll. Most leads below are smaller than a typical single poll's margin of error, about 3 to 5 points.

Texas (open seat). RealClearPolling average: Democrat James Talarico +2.6 over Republican Ken Paxton. The final New York Times/Siena poll had Talarico +7. Money: Talarico raised $146,349,912, the most of any Senate candidate; Paxton raised $22,327,474. Outside groups: about $370 million, the most of any race, including $200.7 million against Talarico. Reid Hoffman gave $11.5 million to Lone Star Rising, the super PAC backing Talarico.

Ohio (special election). RealClearPolling average: Democrat Sherrod Brown +2.8 over Republican Sen. Jon Husted. Money: Brown $68,409,200, Husted $19,894,786. Outside groups: about $298 million.

Michigan (open seat). Silver Bulletin average (November 3): Democrat Abdul El-Sayed +4.9 over Republican Mike Rogers. Single polls range from El-Sayed +2 (Research Co.) to +11 (New York Times/Siena). Money: El-Sayed $53,830,872, Rogers $23,016,439. Outside groups: about $180 million.

Maine. RealClearPolling average: Democrat Troy Jackson +3.6 over Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Money: Jackson $26,872,874 since July, Collins $25,225,468. Outside groups: about $85 million.

Kansas. RealClearPolling average: Democrat Adam Hamilton +4.1 over Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Money: Hamilton $19,175,044, Marshall $7,546,611. Outside groups: about $56 million.

Alaska. RealClearPolling average: Democrat Mary Peltola +1.0 over Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Money: Peltola $36,887,509, Sullivan $14,107,205. Outside groups: about $67 million.

Iowa (open seat). Silver Bulletin average: Democrat Josh Turek +1.1 over Republican Ashley Hinson. The final polls split: New York Times/Siena and YouGov show Turek +1; GrayHouse and co/efficient show Hinson +2. Money: Turek $24,290,521, Hinson $14,147,973. Outside groups: about $130 million.

Nebraska. Few polls. New York Times/Siena (released October 31) had Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts +6 over independent Dan Osborn; Echelon Insights had Ricketts +1. Money: Ricketts $14,546,959, $7,296,348 of it his own money; Osborn $11,029,845. Outside groups: about $52 million.

South Carolina (special election). Polls are close: Republican Sen. Darline Graham led by 1 to 3 points in most fall surveys, and the final New York Times/Siena poll had the race essentially tied with Democrat Annie Andrews. Money: Andrews $24,216,841, Graham $1,917,646. Outside groups: about $28.5 million since the August 25 runoff.

Also watched: North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by 11.0 points in the RealClearPolling average; New Hampshire, where Democrat Chris Pappas led Republican John E. Sununu by 12 in the final UNH poll; and Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff led Republican Mike Collins by about 9 points in the October average.

U.S. House

Republicans need 218 seats to keep the majority. The RealClearPolling generic-ballot average is Democrats 52.1% to Republicans 43.3%. Individual polls in it range from Democrats +4 (Harvard-Harris, October 24-26) to Democrats +15 (Atlas Intel, October 28 to November 1).

Pennsylvania's four battleground House seats (campaign totals for the cycle through October 14, from FEC reports):

• PA-1 (Bucks County): Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick raised $8,021,376 and had $709,097 on hand. Democrat Bob Harvie raised $3,167,942 and had $409,413. ABC News rates it a toss-up.

• PA-7 (Lehigh Valley): Democrat Bob Brooks raised $5,347,353 and had $741,579. Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie raised $5,296,664 and had $1,069,993. Outside groups reported $2.6 million for Brooks and $2.6 million against him, led by the Congressional Leadership Fund ($2.3 million against) and Stronger Together PA ($1.8 million for). The latest public polls had Brooks ahead: Muhlenberg College by 6 in mid-October and RedBox Research 49% to 44% on October 23.

• PA-8 (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre): Democrat Paige Cognetti raised $7,502,359 and had $243,672. Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan raised $6,519,139 and had $732,724.

• PA-10 (Harrisburg, York): Democrat Janelle Stelson raised $9,234,260, the most of any Pennsylvania House candidate, and had $2,069,306. Republican Rep. Scott Perry raised $6,791,519 and had $1,023,569.

In three of the four, the challenger out-raised the incumbent (PA-7, PA-8 and PA-10).

Philadelphia's two seats are not close contests. In PA-3, which Rep. Dwight Evans is leaving, state Rep. Chris Rabb won the Democratic primary and raised $1,457,912 through October 14. In PA-2, Rep. Brendan Boyle raised $2,883,855 this cycle and had $5,894,247 on hand, more than he raised, carried over from past cycles.

Governor

Pennsylvania. Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) faces state Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R). The last independent poll of likely voters, Quinnipiac (October 1-5, 1,159 likely voters, margin of error ±3.9 points), had Shapiro 59%, Garrity 34%.

Who's funding them: from September 15 to October 19, Shapiro raised $8.4 million and Garrity almost $5.4 million. Spotlight PA found at least $4.5 million of Garrity's money in that period, more than 80%, was linked to the skill-games industry: $2 million from the Pennsylvania Amusement and Music Machine Association and $2 million from John D. Conley, owner of Pinnacle Vending. Shapiro's large donors in the same period included $500,000 each from former Erie Insurance CEO Thomas Hagen, former 84 Lumber CEO Margaret Hardy and the Democratic Governors Association, and at least $1.5 million from labor unions. Michael Bloomberg gave $2.5 million toward Shapiro's reelection. Shapiro has spent almost $70 million since the start of 2025, Garrity about $7 million. They entered the final week with $4.3 million and $3.3 million on hand.

Other close governor races, final polls as listed by RealClearPolling (released October 29 to November 2):

• Georgia (open seat): Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson tied 49% to 49% (InsiderAdvantage); Bottoms 51%, Jackson 49% (Research Co.).

• Texas: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Democrat Hinojosa within 1 to 3 points in most final polls: Hinojosa +1 (New York Times/Siena, Atlas Intel), Abbott +1 (Emerson, YouGov), Abbott +2 (CNN).

• Ohio (open seat): Democrat Acton ahead of Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in most final polls, from a tie (Emerson) to Acton +8 (Atlas Intel).

• Kansas (open seat): split. Democrat Holscher +1 (New York Times/Siena) and +4 (Atlas Intel); Republican Masterson +1 (YouGov), +4 (Emerson) and +5 (CNN).

• Nevada: Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) and Democrat Ford tied 47% to 47% (Noble Predictive Insights).

• Michigan (open seat): Democrat Jocelyn Benson ahead of Republican John James in every final poll, from +4 (Emerson) to +13 (New York Times/Siena).

• Arizona: Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) 51%, Republican Andy Biggs 45% (Noble Predictive Insights).

The money closest to home: Pennsylvania's legislature

Control of the state House and Senate in Harrisburg is also on the ballot, and the money there is just as concentrated. Spotlight PA reported on November 2:

• Students First, funded by Jeff Yass, has spent $23.5 million this year, including $7.2 million passed through a new PAC to three Republican state senators in Bucks, Montgomery and Monroe counties.

• PAC for America's Future, funded in part by Jonathan Soros and Lynn Schusterman, gave nearly $7.8 million to Democratic legislative candidates this year.

• Groups reported at least $10 million in independent spending in legislative races. The largest, First Amendment LLC, spent $4 million against Democrats in 26 races. The Pennsylvania Fund for Change spent almost $2 million; nearly half of its $8 million came from PA Alliance Action, a Philadelphia nonprofit that does not disclose its donors.

Philadelphia voters also decide two Home Rule Charter questions. Read the exact wording on the City Commissioners' sample ballot before you vote.

What stands out

In 8 of the 9 Senate races above with both money and polling figures, the candidate leading the polls also raised more for their campaign. The exception is South Carolina, where Andrews has raised more than 12 times what Graham has and the race is still close to even.

The two kinds of money point in opposite directions. Conservative outside groups have out-spent liberal ones by $360 million, while OpenSecrets expects Democratic candidates' own campaigns to out-spend Republican candidates' $2.2 billion to $1.4 billion. Texas shows both at once: Talarico's campaign raised more than six times what Paxton's did, and outside groups spent $200.7 million against Talarico, more than his campaign raised all cycle.

Four donors, Musk, the Uihleins, the Yasses and Soros, have each given more than $100 million: $808 million between them, by the same count of FEC data.

How True News counted

Early-vote figures are from the UF Election Lab's data file, maintained by Dr. McDonald, compiled from state election offices, as of 11:30 p.m. Eastern on November 2. Comparisons to 2022 use the total 2022 turnout the Election Lab lists for each state. Race figures come from the states that record race on the voter rolls.

Campaign money is each campaign's cycle total from FEC reports through October 14, the last reports due before Election Day. Contributions of $1,000 or more since then are reported in 48-hour notices and are not included.

Senate outside-spending figures are the True News tally of FEC filings through October 27, first published in Follow the Money, Part 4: each group's reports and 24- and 48-hour notices, with duplicates removed, counting only spending after each state's primary. They are preliminary and rounded. PA-7 outside spending is the FEC's own total by candidate. To check any group, search its name on the FEC's independent expenditures page.

National totals and outside-spending figures are from OpenSecrets as of October 30. Donor totals are from Al Jazeera's count of FEC data as of October 27, so every donor in the list is measured on the same date. Two single gifts (Reid Hoffman to Lone Star Rising, Michael Bloomberg to Shapiro) are from CNBC's count of FEC data through September 25. These sources count slightly different things, so their totals do not add up to each other.

Polls and averages are as of November 2 and are not True News predictions. RealClearPolling shows its toss-up ratings on one map and each race's polling average on its "no toss-ups" map, so the average links go to the second page. Results tonight are unofficial until each state certifies them.

See every candidate

Every Senate and House candidate in all 50 states, with their latest numbers and who's funding them, is on the candidates page.

Get Follow the Money in your inbox: free daily briefing.

Originally published by True News: https://truenews.bagleyenterprises.net/stories/713