Follow the Money, Part 4: the final week. The battleground Senate races, the money and the polls

Updated October 28, 2026, with the last campaign reports before Election Day (filed October 22, covering through October 14), outside spending reported through October 27, the Cook Political Report's ratings as of October 20, and polling averages from 270toWin as of October 28.

This is the fourth part of a True News series following the money in the 2026 election. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. Every money figure comes from reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. The ratings and polling averages are other organizations' work, credited by name. True News has no political affiliation, endorses no party or candidate, and makes no prediction of its own.

The map

Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority. The Cook Political Report rates seven races toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, six of them held by Republicans. It rates Minnesota and New Hampshire Lean Democrat, South Carolina Lean Republican and Nebraska Likely Republican. These 11 states are the battlegrounds below.

How to read the polls: each average below is 270toWin's average of the most recent polls in that state, with the number of polls in parentheses. Most of these leads are smaller than a typical poll's margin of error, about 3 to 5 points. A small lead in an average is not a forecast.

The races

Texas (open seat; Toss Up). Polls: Democrat James Talarico 49.6%, Republican Ken Paxton 46.7% (7 polls). Money through October 14: Talarico raised $146,349,912 for the cycle, $17,577,077 of it in the first two weeks of October alone, and had $9,922,857 on hand. Paxton raised $22,327,474 and had $4,784,408 on hand.

Ohio (special election; Toss Up). Polls: Democrat Sherrod Brown 48.3%, Republican Sen. Jon Husted 44.8% (6 polls). Brown raised $68,409,200 and had $4,452,803 on hand. Husted raised $19,894,786 and had $4,239,097 on hand (his figures run through October 22).

Michigan (open seat; Toss Up). Polls: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed 49.0%, Republican Mike Rogers 45.4% (5 polls). El-Sayed raised $53,830,872 and had $2,734,029 on hand. Rogers raised $23,016,439 and had $3,902,506 on hand (through October 22).

Maine (Toss Up). Polls: Democrat Troy Jackson 49.0%, Republican Sen. Susan Collins 46.8% (5 polls). Jackson raised $26,872,874 since July and had $1,596,871 on hand, with $700,952 in debts. Collins raised $25,225,468 for the cycle and had $2,689,883 on hand.

Alaska (Toss Up). Polls: Democrat Mary Peltola 47.0%, Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 44.8%, with two other candidates at 3.5% and 1.8% (4 polls). Peltola raised $36,887,509 and had $4,102,126 on hand. Sullivan raised $14,107,205 and had $2,839,758 on hand.

Kansas (Toss Up). Polls: Democrat Adam Hamilton 46.0%, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 45.0% (4 polls). Hamilton raised $19,175,044, $5,641,333 of it since October 1, and had $2,874,364 on hand. Marshall raised $7,546,611 and had $809,806 on hand.

Iowa (open seat; Toss Up). Polls: Republican Ashley Hinson 45.8%, Democrat Josh Turek 45.0% (5 polls). This is the only toss-up where a Republican leads the average. Turek raised $24,290,521 and had $3,072,851 on hand. Hinson raised $14,147,973 and had $2,172,989 on hand.

New Hampshire (open seat; Lean Democrat). Polls: Democrat Chris Pappas 49.7%, Republican John E. Sununu 42.8% (6 polls). Pappas raised $23,703,648 and had $1,984,366 on hand. Sununu raised $5,681,528 and had $1,711,396 on hand.

Minnesota (open seat; Lean Democrat; Cook moved it from Likely Democrat on October 20). Polls: Democrat Peggy Flanagan 48.2%, Republican Michele Tafoya 42.2% (6 polls). Tafoya out-raised Flanagan, $12,501,786 to $11,563,963, and had $2,819,387 on hand to Flanagan's $993,214.

Nebraska (Likely Republican). Polls: Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts 46.3%, independent Dan Osborn 44.3% (4 polls). Ricketts raised $14,546,959, $7,296,348 of it his own money, and had $1,218,139 on hand. Osborn raised $11,029,845 and had $1,953,183 on hand.

South Carolina (special election; Lean Republican; Cook moved it from Likely Republican on October 20). Sen. Lindsey Graham died on July 11, after winning the June primary. His sister, Sen. Darline Graham, was appointed to the seat and won the Republican special primary runoff on August 25. Polls: Graham 46.6%, Democrat Annie Andrews 44.8% (5 polls). Andrews raised $24,216,841 and had $1,709,466 on hand. Graham's new campaign raised $1,917,646 and had $634,430 on hand.

The outside money

Since each state's primary, super PACs, party committees and other groups have reported about $1.3 billion in independent spending in these 11 races, up from about $1.0 billion in the ten races True News counted on October 16.

Texas: about $370 million, the most of these races. Groups have spent $89.5 million supporting Paxton and $61.4 million opposing him, and $18.9 million supporting Talarico and $200.7 million opposing him. Texas PAC alone reported $69.3 million for Paxton and $110.8 million against Talarico.

Ohio: about $298 million. $64.7 million for Husted and $111.6 million against him (WinSenate, $64.1 million); $11.3 million for Brown and $110.0 million against him (SLF PAC, $32.6 million).

Michigan: about $180 million. $30.2 million for Rogers and $43.4 million against him; $28.6 million for El-Sayed and $78.2 million against him (No Going Back PAC, $26.1 million).

Iowa: about $130 million. $15.7 million for Hinson and $58.6 million against her (WinSenate, $33.5 million); $26.6 million for Turek and $28.6 million against him.

Maine: about $85 million. $4.2 million for Collins and $32.4 million against her (WinSenate, $27.1 million); $10.4 million for Jackson and $37.6 million against him (Pine Tree Results PAC, $16.7 million).

Alaska: about $67 million. $9.6 million for Sullivan and $31.1 million against him; $7.8 million for Peltola and $18.3 million against her.

Kansas: about $56 million, nearly double the October 16 figure. $2.3 million for Marshall and $28.1 million against him; $8.4 million for Hamilton and $17.4 million against him.

Nebraska: about $52 million. $0.6 million for Ricketts and $18.2 million against him; $10.1 million for Osborn and $23.2 million against him.

New Hampshire: about $48 million. $7.1 million for Sununu and $18.0 million against him; $1.1 million for Pappas and $22.1 million against him.

South Carolina: about $28.5 million since the August 25 runoff. $5.0 million for Graham and $7.4 million against her; $4.1 million for Andrews and $12.0 million against her.

Minnesota: about $3.3 million, the least on this list.

What stands out

In eight of the 11 races, the candidate leading the polling average is also the one whose campaign raised more. The exceptions are Iowa, where Turek out-raised Hinson; Minnesota, where Tafoya out-raised Flanagan; and South Carolina, where Andrews has raised more than twelve times what Graham has. In six of the 11, outside groups have spent more against the polling leader than against the opponent. In Texas, groups have spent $200.7 million against Talarico, more than his campaign has raised all cycle.

The money is lopsided in places the polls are not. Talarico's campaign has raised more than six times what Paxton's has, and the Texas average has him ahead by less than three points.

How True News counted

Campaign figures are cycle totals from each campaign's reports, through October 14 unless noted. The outside-spending figures are a True News tally of FEC filings through October 27: each group's regular reports plus the 24- and 48-hour notices filed since, with duplicate and amended entries removed, counting only spending dated after the race's primary (for South Carolina, after the August 25 runoff). They are preliminary, rounded, and do not include party coordinated spending or ads that never name a candidate. To check any figure, search the group's name on the FEC's independent expenditures page.

The ratings are the Cook Political Report's as of October 20. The polling averages are 270toWin's as of October 28 and change as new polls arrive. Neither is a True News prediction.

See every candidate

Every Senate and House candidate in all 50 states, with their latest numbers and where the money came from, is on the candidates page. Large contributions made after October 14 must be reported within 48 hours, so the totals will keep moving until Election Day.

Originally published by True News: https://truenews.bagleyenterprises.net/stories/555