Follow the Money, Part 2: the 10 Senate races most likely to decide control, by the numbers

Updated October 17, 2026, with the quarterly reports the campaigns filed on October 15, covering through September 30, and with the outside money spent in each race since its primary.

This is the second in a weekly True News series following the money in the 2026 election, through Election Day on November 3. Every figure comes from reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. True News has no political affiliation and endorses no party or candidate.

Part 1 looked at Pennsylvania's closest House races. This week: the Senate. Ten races are on this list because at least one of the major election forecasters rated each a toss-up as of the week of October 6. The Cook Political Report rates seven of them toss-ups (Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas). Inside Elections rates New Hampshire a toss-up, and RealClearPolitics rates Minnesota and Nebraska toss-ups.

Who's funding the candidates

The campaign figures below run through September 30 and cover the whole 2026 cycle. The amount in parentheses is what each campaign raised in July, August and September alone.

Alaska: Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan raised $13,760,055 ($2,659,459 in the quarter), spent $9,388,081 and had $5,103,717 on hand. Democrat Mary Peltola, the state's former U.S. representative, raised $32,623,722 ($17,048,182), spent $29,463,904 and had $3,159,817 on hand.

Iowa (open seat; Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring): Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson raised $13,472,386 ($3,254,541), spent $8,475,472 and had $6,924,989 on hand. Democrat Josh Turek, a state representative, raised $20,152,882 ($13,876,355), spent $16,545,789 and had $3,607,093 on hand.

Kansas: Republican Sen. Roger Marshall raised $7,006,240 ($866,281), spent $6,294,111 and had $922,088 on hand. Democrat Adam Hamilton raised $13,533,711 ($9,855,001), spent $10,350,311 and had $3,183,400 on hand. Cook moved this race to Toss Up on October 6; a Democrat has not won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932.

Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins raised $24,131,410 ($5,201,332), spent $20,038,120 and had $5,388,482 on hand. Democrat Troy Jackson, chosen by the state party in July after primary winner Graham Platner withdrew, filed his first report: he raised $20,431,280 between July 7 and September 30, spent $16,474,464, had $3,956,817 on hand and reported $1,025,821 in debts.

Michigan (open seat; Sen. Gary Peters is retiring): Republican Mike Rogers, a former U.S. representative, raised $20,565,706 ($9,978,251), spent $14,293,939 and had $6,527,471 on hand. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, who won a three-way primary in August, raised $45,175,567 ($32,965,086), spent $41,383,363 and had $3,792,203 on hand.

New Hampshire (open seat; Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is retiring): Republican John E. Sununu, a former senator, raised $5,334,886 ($1,549,577), spent $2,799,105 and had $2,502,771 on hand. Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas raised $21,500,073 ($8,128,466), spent $18,623,763 and had $3,283,894 on hand.

Ohio (special election): Republican Sen. Jon Husted, appointed to the seat in 2025, raised $19,208,763 ($4,848,736), spent $10,325,470 and had $8,883,293 on hand. Democrat Sherrod Brown, the former senator, raised $61,686,820 ($23,120,586), spent $56,825,368 and had $4,861,452 on hand.

Texas: Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, who defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the May runoff, raised $19,497,810 ($10,249,117), spent $14,572,704 and had $4,925,105 on hand. Democrat James Talarico, a state representative, raised $128,772,835 ($60,214,961), spent $114,178,604 and had $14,594,232 on hand.

Minnesota (open seat; Sen. Tina Smith is retiring): Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sportscaster, raised $9,661,154 ($4,944,893), spent $7,527,317, had $2,134,167 on hand and reported $728,991 in debts. Democrat Peggy Flanagan, the lieutenant governor, raised $10,301,879 ($4,257,716), spent $8,758,552 and had $1,543,327 on hand.

Nebraska: Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts raised $13,405,556 ($2,172,050), spent $12,819,482 and had $1,073,044 on hand; $6,296,348 of his total came from his own money. Independent Dan Osborn, a former union leader who has the Nebraska Democratic Party's endorsement, raised $9,805,860 ($4,050,409), spent $7,658,454 and had $2,210,572 on hand (his cycle totals run through October 14; the quarter figure is July through September, like the others).

The outside money

Super PACs, party committees and other groups can spend without limit to support or oppose a candidate, as long as they do not coordinate with the campaign. They must report it to the FEC, and in the weeks before an election they must report within 24 or 48 hours. Since each state's primary, those groups have reported spending more than $1 billion in these ten races, about twice what the 20 candidates' campaigns raised all cycle ($510 million).

Texas: about $283.3 million. Groups spent $87.8 million supporting Paxton and $39.4 million opposing him, and $12.7 million supporting Talarico and $143.4 million opposing him. The largest single spender is Texas PAC: $69.2 million for Paxton and $77.6 million against Talarico.

Ohio: about $268.5 million. $58.9 million supporting Husted and $81.4 million opposing him; $6.9 million supporting Brown and $121.3 million opposing him. The largest spenders: SLF PAC, $56.0 million against Brown; WinSenate, $42.1 million against Husted; Defend American Jobs, $33.0 million for Husted.

Michigan: about $134.1 million. $21.9 million for Rogers and $36.4 million against him; $16.6 million for El-Sayed and $59.3 million against him. WinSenate spent $21.6 million against Rogers; No Going Back PAC spent $22.5 million against El-Sayed.

Iowa: about $94.3 million. $13.8 million for Hinson and $46.5 million against her (including $28.2 million from WinSenate); $8.6 million for Turek and $25.4 million against him.

Maine: about $70.5 million. $3.1 million for Collins and $24.2 million against her (including $19.7 million from WinSenate); $9.4 million for Jackson and $33.9 million against him (including $14.8 million from Pine Tree Results PAC).

Alaska: about $52.9 million. $8.9 million for Sullivan and $23.2 million against him; $4.9 million for Peltola and $16.0 million against her.

New Hampshire: about $40.9 million since the September 8 primary. $6.1 million for Sununu and $13.2 million against him; $0.9 million for Pappas and $20.7 million against him.

Nebraska: about $39.7 million. $0.4 million for Ricketts and $14.4 million against him; $7.4 million for Osborn and $17.5 million against him.

Kansas: about $29.8 million. $1.5 million for Marshall and $13.7 million against him; $2.2 million for Hamilton and $12.5 million against him.

Minnesota: about $2.3 million, the least on this list, almost all of it in Flanagan's race ($1.5 million for her, $0.8 million against).

What stands out

In nine of the ten races, the Democrat or independent out-raised the Republican from July through September; Minnesota is the exception, where Tafoya raised about $690,000 more than Flanagan. Talarico raised $60.2 million in the quarter alone, nearly as much as Brown, the next-largest fundraiser on this list, has raised all cycle ($61.7 million).

The campaigns' money and the outside money point in different directions. Talarico's campaign has raised more than six times what Paxton's has, but outside groups have spent nearly seven times as much supporting Paxton as supporting Talarico ($87.8 million to $12.7 million), plus $143.4 million against Talarico. In Ohio, Brown's campaign raised more than three times what Husted's did, while groups have spent $121.3 million against Brown since the May primary.

The Republicans had more cash on hand at the end of September in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio. The Democrats or the independent had more in Kansas, New Hampshire, Nebraska and Texas. Several campaigns spent more than they raised in the quarter, drawing down their reserves before the final month: Collins spent $10.9 million against $5.2 million raised, and Ricketts spent $8.0 million against $2.2 million.

How True News counted the outside money

The outside-spending figures are a True News tally of FEC filings through October 16. They count each group's regular reports plus the 24- and 48-hour notices filed since its last regular report, with duplicate and amended entries removed, and only spending dated after the race's primary (for Texas, after the May 26 runoff). Amounts are rounded, so the parts may not add exactly to the totals. They are preliminary: groups can amend their filings, and some spending reported in a notice will reappear in a later regular report. Totals for the 2026 cycle including the primaries are higher. To check any figure, search the group's name on the FEC's independent expenditures page.

What these numbers don't show

Money spent by outside groups is not given to the candidates, and the candidates may not direct it. Party committees' coordinated spending, and spending on ads that never name a candidate, are reported differently and are not included.

The campaigns file one more report before the election, due October 22 and covering through October 14, and large contributions after that must be reported within 48 hours. True News will update these races when those reports come in.

Ratings change too. The forecasters' ratings above are as of the week of October 6, 2026, and are not predictions by True News.

See every candidate

Every candidate for the Senate and House in all 50 states, with their latest numbers and a breakdown of where the money came from, is on the candidates page. Select a state, then Details next to any name, and follow the link to the official FEC record to search individual donors.

Originally published by True News: https://truenews.bagleyenterprises.net/stories/176