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EIA forecasts Alaskan crude oil production to grow 13% in 2027
Crude oil production in Alaska is expected to rise 13% in 2027, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In its November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the agency said it expects output to increase by 23,000 barrels per day (b/d), or 6%, in 2026, followed by a 60,000 b/d rise in 2027.
The EIA said production would reach a forecast 505,000 b/d in 2027, the most since 2014. If realized, the agency said, these annual increases would be the largest since the 1980s, when Alaskan production peaked at 2.0 million b/d.
The EIA attributed the growth to two projects on Alaska's North Slope. The Nuna project, owned by ConocoPhillips, started production in December 2024 and has averaged 10,000 b/d so far this year, with an expected peak of 20,000 b/d. The Pikka Phase 1 project, jointly owned by Santos and Repsol, began production in May 2026 and reached 38,000 b/d as of September, citing data from the Alaska Oil & Gas Conservation Commission. The EIA expects Pikka to peak at 80,000 b/d by winter 2026–27.
The agency also said third-quarter 2026 production grew 4%, the first third-quarter increase in more than 40 years. Output typically dips in late summer during annual maintenance, the EIA said.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
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